The desire to know when you actually don’t is a powerful force in people. In his book The Leader's Handbook, Peter Scholtes provides some interesting research and observations about opinion. The research data comes from the business arena, specifically manufacturing, where measurable data is available.
Therefore, his research does not involve highly charged emotional issues related to religion or politics, where opinion often dominates. This is significant information because it shows how an opinion can become a tool that demands action when you don't seek the facts.
The Data
There was a problem in a factory. A team of researchers recognized the problem and chose to use it as a test to research opinions. They spoke with the people on the factory floor and asked them about the issue. Then, they asked the people to share their views on a solution to the problem, as well as how convinced they were that it was the right solution.
The chart in the thumbnail of the video below illustrates the conversations with the various people. If you watch the video, you will see the “Xs” that represent the solution that each person provided. As they interviewed people, each person's solution was placed on the chart depending on two items:
- Documentation of facts about their solution
- Their conviction that their solution was the solution
The graph below displays these two items on the X and Y scales. The left or Y scale shows the degree of conviction - "Unsure to Absolute Conviction." The bottom or X scale shows the degree of documented facts for their solution, ranging from "Outright Lie to Well Documented Truth."
The Correlation
With those two scales, you might be like me and expect the correlation to be like the picture above. That correlation is stated as follows: people will “pound the table” about their conviction when the facts are well-documented.
Well, that did not happen in this situation. Watch the video to see how opinion ruled the day. Also, note the variety of answers on the chart and where many answers were.
Here is a quote from the book.
The (Expected Correlation)...would be an ideal and logical correlation. The X’s represent what we commonly observe in everyday life. Discourse is usually cloaked in the rhetoric of rationality. However, data is a necessary ingredient to rationality, particularly data showing variation. Without data, opinion prevails. Where opinion prevails, whoever has power is king. The ultimate correlation, therefore, is more likely between assertiveness and clout, not assertiveness and objective truth. It is possible that managers who wish to hold on to the illusion of power may resist a statistical view of work. - Peter Scholtes
A Key Discovery for Leaders
Leaders should review the findings of Peter Scholtes' research. Many people were absolutely convinced their solution was the best, but it wasn't a good solution; it was closer to a lie than the truth. They had an opinion with few facts about the solution.
So, many people were "pounding the table" about their opinions. Others had good facts but were not convinced. Still, others had few facts but were not confident they were right.
The group of people in the upper left of the chart is a valuable lesson for leaders. The real correlation is NOT between Conviction and Well-Documented Truth. It is between Assertiveness and Power.
That means you, as the leader, have the power, so be careful when you "pound the table!" Is your opinion driving your conviction? Are you about to take action on something that may be a lie?
It's time for self-reflection. Do you believe something without supporting facts? Does your opinion have little or no evidence to support it? Do you follow common statements like “How can we know the truth?” Is the truth how you see it? Do you think there are no absolutes?
If so, then WOW! You need to slow down and find some facts and the truth.
Please gather more facts instead of just expressing your opinion, especially if you have the power to take the next action for the group.